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Advanced prediction of Biome Boundary shifts in regional and global dynamic vegetation models

Work within the BBS initiative contributes to Focus 3 of the bioDISCOVERY scientific strategy - improving biodiversity predictions. The BBS initiative strives to better understand and predict the mechanisms that drive shifts in vegetation structure and lead to major changes in biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services. This is done by furthering the development of improved global dynamic vegetation models (DGVM) that include the representation of biological diversity, such as plant functional traits, and ecolgical processes, like migration/dispersal, mortality, disturbance and mechanisms of co-existence. A longer-term goal is to facilitate the benchmarking of modelled responses of vegetation dynamics to global change using paleo-data, recent historical observations and experiments.

The first workshop of the initiative was held in Yokohama, Japan, in 2008. Aim of the workshop was to improve methods for predicting future dynamics of vegetation patterns at large spatial scales as affected by climate change and land use, in particular at biome boundaries (Workshop report). The second workshop, held jointly with the TRY initiative in Cape Town, South Africa, focused on improving model benchmarking (Workshop report).

The third workshop was aimed at further understanding and modelling processes contributing to plant migration, and to further understanding of plant functional trait – fire feedbacks in order to improve fire modules in DGVMs. Click here for the full workshop report.

The results of this project will contribute to the upcoming IPCC reports (IPCC-AR5) and should also contribute to the new IPBES.

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