GBO
The Global Biodiversity Outlook (GBO)
The Global Biodiversity Outlook is the flagship publication of the Convention on Biological Diversity. The second meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity called for the preparation of a periodic report on biological diversity: the Global Biodiversity Outlook (GBO). It suggested that the GBO should provide a summary of the status of biological diversity and an analysis of the steps being taken by the global community to ensure that biodiversity is conserved and used sustainably, and that benefits arising from the use of genetic resources are shared equitably. The Secretariat of the CBD has together with partners produced three GBO reports: GBO-1, GBO-2 and GBO-3.
Involvement of DIVERSITAS in GBO-3: Biodiversity scenarios
DIVERSITAS, in partnership with UNEP-WCMC, was contracted by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) to prepare a synthesis of scenarios of biodiversity change over the 21st century as part of the GBO-3.
The study was led by P Leadley, H Pereira, R Alkemade, J Fernandez, V Proença, J Scharlemann, M Walpole, and 36 contributing authors. Results of this study were first presented by T Lovejoy during the opening ceremony of CBD-SBSTTA 14 in Nairobi, Kenya (10 May 2010), and published as CBD Technical Series Number 50, under the title:
Biodiversity scenarios: Projections of 21st century change in biodiversity and associated ecosystem services.
This biodiversity scenarios study forms part of the Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, which summarises the latest data on status and trends of biodiversity and draws conclusions for the future strategy of the CBD.
Part of this study appeared in: Pereira, Leadley et al., Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century, Science, 330: 1496-1501.
Decision UNEP/CBD/COP/DEC/X/4: Third edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook: implications for the future implementation of the Convention.
Key conclusions of the Biodiversity Scenarios study (GBO-3):
- Projected global change impacts will result in significant changes in distribution and abundance of species, assemblages and biomes, leading to considerable ecosystem modifications. Species extinctions and natural habitat loss will continue or even accelerate. The projected changes show considerable regional differences, with impacts being highest in tropical forests, boreal and Arctic tundra, as well as in freshwater and marine systems.
- A number of “tipping points”, i.e. an irreversible conversion of an ecosystem were identified (e.g. Amazonian forest or Arctic Tundra). These “tipping points” are caused by complex feedback mechanisms that are not yet fully understood, and thus difficult to predict. The effect of thresholds, amplifying feedbacks and time-lags have been underestimated, and major biodiversity transformations might occur even below a warming of 2°C, calling for a precautionary approach to human activities.
- Biodiversity tipping points identified will be linked to large negative regional or global scale impacts. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem service delivery capacity decline respond in similar ways to drivers, however, their linkages and relationships are not fully understood. Changes in key stone or dominant species are expected to have a greater impact on ecosystem services than species extinctions.
- A reduction or reversal of undesirable and dangerous biodiversity transformation requires the development of adaptive management strategies on international, national and local level. Necessary actions to be taken include increasing agricultural efficiency, international regulation of fisheries, climate mitigation and limited deployment of biofuels. Protected areas are still the most effective means of biodiversity conservation. Spatial conservation planning needs to take into consideration future biodiversity transformation, and include ecosystem-based approaches. Ecosystem restoration could play a considerable role in maintaining biodiversity and provisioning of ecosystem services.
